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The shift to shorter aFRR capacity blocks is underway across Europe. For a renewable power trader, committing capacity in a 4-hour block instead of a 24-hour one means making that call more often, and a point forecast alone doesn’t say how much margin it needs.
For many data scientists and analysts, the first week of July was long blocked in the calendar. The 44th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF), the leading event for forecasting professionals, was held in Dijon.
Trade strategies that incorporate probabilistic price forecasts offer a comprehensive view of uncertainty. This article reviews the advantages and qualities of probabilistic forecasts, then provides ways to apply conformal prediction.